Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. As the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
